January Effect: Does the Small-Cap January Bounce Still Work?
The January effect says small caps and beaten-down stocks bounce in early January. What the data show, why the edge faded, and how to test what is left.
11 min read ▮ Strategy family
Market Trends
October Effect: Is October Really the Crash Month for Stocks?
The October effect says October is the stock market's crash month. What S&P 500 data since 1928 actually show, why October is a volatility story, and how to size for it.
10 min readStock-Bond Correlation: How to Measure It and Why It Flips
Stock-bond correlation decides whether your bond sleeve is a hedge or dead weight. How to measure it, why the sign flips, and what 2022 taught allocators.
8 min readCrack Spread Explained: How to Calculate the Refiner Margin
What the crack spread is, how to calculate a 3-2-1 crack spread step by step, and how traders read refiner margins for signals.
8 min readIndex Inclusion Effect: What Joining the S&P 500 Does to a Stock
The index inclusion effect once paid 5–8% per S&P 500 addition. What the research shows, why the edge decayed, and how to test what's left of it.
7 min readMOVE Index Explained: How to Read Bond Market Volatility
The MOVE index is the bond market's VIX — expected Treasury yield volatility in basis points. What normal vs. stress levels look like and why equity traders watch it.
8 min readSeptember Effect: Is September Really the Worst Month for Stocks?
The September effect says stocks fall in September. What ~100 years of S&P 500 data actually show, the proposed causes, and how to test the pattern.
8 min readTriple Witching: What It Is, 2026 Dates, and How Traders Handle It
What triple witching is, the 2026 dates, why volume explodes at the open and close, and how traders avoid getting run over by expiration-day mechanics.
8 min readDeath Cross: What It Really Signals, and When It Fails
The death cross sounds terrifying but fires late by design. What the 50/200-day cross actually signals, its real track record, and how to test it.
8 min readBenner Cycle: Can a 150-Year-Old Chart Really Time the Market?
The Benner cycle marks 2026 as a year to sell. What the 150-year-old forecast chart gets right, where it fails, and how traders should actually test it.
8 min readVolatility Risk Premium: Why Selling Insurance on Stocks Pays
The volatility risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and realized volatility. Learn how to measure it, why it exists, and how it's harvested.
8 min readShort Interest Ratio: How to Read Days to Cover Like a Desk Trader
What the short interest ratio measures, how to calculate days to cover, and how to tell a crowded short from a squeeze setup — with worked numbers.
9 min readSkew Index Explained: Reading the Market's Tail-Risk Gauge
What the CBOE skew index measures, why readings above 145 matter, and how to combine SKEW with the VIX to read tail-risk pricing like a desk trader.
8 min readGamma Exposure (GEX): How Dealer Hedging Moves the Market
Gamma exposure (GEX) explained: how market-maker hedging pins and amplifies price, and how to read call walls, put walls and the gamma flip with plain numbers.
9 min readContango vs Backwardation: How to Read the Futures Curve
Contango vs backwardation explained: how to read the futures curve, what roll yield quietly does to ETF returns, and how traders use curve shape as a signal.
8 min readSafe Haven Assets: What Actually Works When Markets Break
Which safe haven assets actually protect a portfolio in a selloff — Treasuries, gold, the dollar, the yen — how to test haven behavior, and how havens fail.
8 min readHow to Trade Gold: Drivers, Vehicles, and a Real Trade Plan
How to trade gold step by step: real yields and the dollar, futures vs ETFs vs gold miners, a worked micro-futures example, and the risk rules gold demands.
8 min readEarnings Season Trading Strategy: How to Trade Reporting Season
Build an earnings season trading strategy: the pre-report checklist, implied move math, IV crush, and post-earnings drift — plus sizing rules that survive.
9 min readThe Carry Trade: How It Works and Why It Unwinds
What a carry trade is, why the interest-rate differential pays a steady return, how to size one — and why crowded carry trades like the 2024 yen unwind blow up fast.
8 min readVIX Term Structure: Contango, Backwardation and What Inversions Mean
VIX term structure explained: what contango and backwardation mean, how to read the curve with plain numbers, and what inversions have signaled historically.
8 min readHow to Trade Oil: Benchmarks, Catalysts, and a Real Trade Plan
How to trade oil step by step: WTI vs Brent, the weekly EIA inventory report, futures vs ETFs vs energy stocks, and the risk rules crude oil demands.
8 min readHow to Trade Commodities: Vehicles, Term Structure, and Risk
How to trade commodities the right way: futures, ETFs, and producer stocks compared, contango explained in plain numbers, and the risks that punish beginners.
8 min readVIX Trading Strategies: Futures, ETPs, and Term Structure
VIX trading strategies explained: why you can't buy the VIX directly, how futures and ETPs really behave, term-structure trades, and the decay that ruins them.
8 min readRussell Reconstitution: How the Index Rebalance Moves Markets
Russell reconstitution is the annual rebalance that resets the Russell indexes each June. Learn why it spikes volume, how traders prepare, and the mistakes to avoid.
8 min readGrowth vs Value Investing: How the Style Cycle Works
Growth vs value investing is a style choice that swings in multi-year cycles. Learn what drives each, how the rotation works, and how to read it.
8 min readTrading Volatility: How to Position for High-VIX Markets
Trading volatility means managing market turbulence itself, not just direction. Learn what drives the VIX, a worked example, and the mistakes that blow up accounts.
8 min readSector Rotation Strategy: How to Trade the Cycle
A sector rotation strategy moves capital between market sectors as the cycle and macro regime shift. Learn the framework, a worked example, and the traps.
7 min readStock Market Seasonality: How to Use Calendar Patterns
Stock market seasonality is the tendency for returns to cluster by calendar period. Learn the real patterns, why they exist, and how to use them.
8 min readWhat Is a Trading Edge (and How to Actually Find One)
A trading edge is positive expectancy, nothing more. Learn the math behind it, where real edges come from, and a step-by-step process to find your own.
8 min read